VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the Week of March 15, 2021

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of March the 15th, 2021.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now to get started, we’re going to begin where we always do with that very important U.S. Dollar Index. Now what we can assess here, that things pretty much played out as suggested in last week’s weekly outlook. We’ve topped out on the dollar here, starting to move lower, we’re correcting lower here. Now, this was all based around the medium term, crossing the long-term predicted difference. When our neural index turned red, that helped to confirm this and we had a falling on our aside. Now, what we want to make note of here is that every time we get near this VantagePoint T cross long, which is outlined here at 91.22, the market is very hesitant to sell dollars here. Now, again, what I had stated in last week’s presentation that in most weeks I would argue 85% of the time, the Tuesday after the non-farm payroll number, the dollar weakens. We’ve seen this happen yet again, but a lot of times that’s the ex, that’s pretty much about it.

U.S. Dollar Index

The dollar then starts to flatten out. So as we start the new week, this medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference is telling us, as of right now, going into the new trading week, this is a corrective move lower. So we look at the T cross long. That’s our major support, 91.22. We also have the yearly opening price at 89, approximately 89.90, confirming that the dollar is still holding its ground here. Nothing is really changed. Again, as I’ve always said, nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down. Now with this corrective move, what appears to be at least for now is a corrective move lower on the dollar. You do have traders picking up some of that low-hanging fruit with gold contracts. You can see that gold is correcting higher on the exact same signal, the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference with the neural index, but much like the dollar index.

If we look closely at that RSI using a 60 40 split to gauge momentum, you can see we’ve got a reverse checkmark here. There is very, very little downward momentum. Not that there won’t be next week. There still could be. But right now the RSI is saying we’re lacking momentum to the downside while at the same time, the RSI is running flat directly along the breakout point of the 60 level and failing to confirm there’s any momentum. We can also see this yellow shading in the VantagePoint software that’s further identifying that this is a cautionary level here. So in my respectful opinion, whether you’re a gold bull or a gold bear, you, we just look at the facts here.

Gold

When we look at gold coming down, this is where we’ve been gold currently down about 10% on the year. Not doing well at all. Right?

Gold

So we come down, we hit the key VantagePoint level. We go back down, we come back, we hit it again, down we come again yet again hit it and this pattern keeps repeating itself. So the probability of a failure here at this T cross long at 1751 is very high. Now, if you believe, or if anybody believes that gold is going to break out to the upside, then the easy way to play this, and this is what I would advise my own guys is that I would simply have a buy limit order at about 1762. So if we break above the key VantagePoint level and you believe that gold is going higher, then that’s how you would play this, but buying or selling it right around here. So obviously shorts carry the edge here, but a long could be there too. But any long would only be corrective in nature in my respectful opinion, because again, the yearly opening price on this 1904, we are firmly below that, almost 10% below that.

So unless we get above 1904, gold is officially bearish at this current time.

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at stocks going into next week, once again, the S&P 500 again, starts a relentless move back up again. After a corrective move, they’re flushing out some of the longs up higher only to turn around and correct now, correct lower, and then turn around and go back higher. Excuse me. Now we’ve got a major support level down here 3694, but it, once again, we’re starting to push back up. Now, when I look at this right now, we can identify our main support to begin the week 3875. There just doesn’t seem to be anything to stop this S&P 500 from making gains. However, be very, very cautious around this 3950. We’re still not getting a lot of buying up here. Now, the VantagePoint indicator is a little bit of a concern there that that medium term predicted difference is starting to roll over a little bit, but for now it still looks like full steam ahead on stocks.

And it would appear that the 4,000 mark is certainly in the crosshairs. Now, when we look at that, the S&P 500 is further supported from an inner market standpoint, from oil contracts. They too after another corrective, move back down into this low again.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil

Looking at that T cross long 59.92, we’ve hit that level, and now we’re extending higher yet again. So to begin the week, we’re looking for the market to hold above 62.78. If we click on our F8 in our software, we can see that our daily pivot area to look to buy this thing is sitting at about 65,01, but we’re also getting a little bit toppy here also and those predicted differences are starting to flatten out. So keep an eye to see if we can break above the most recent swing high we’re where we also now have a newly formed, verified resistance that coming in at 67.98.

Here’s my advice. Free advice is, be careful around this level for a break of 67.98, only for it to violently reverse on Tuesday. So if oil is going to make a big push, it’s going to be Monday. If it does make that big push to the upside, be very, very cautious with it on Tuesday.

Bitcoin

Now, once again, the darling of the markets is clearly one of, and one of my personal favorites is again, Bitcoin. And now Bitcoin, once again, it’s hard to believe I’m even saying this, that it’s challenging the 60,000 Mark yet again, the high at 58,329. And this thing looks ready to pop yet again. So what we look at this, when we’re looking at Bitcoin, we, it is very volatile right now absolutely, but we’re looking to make sure that everything is good. Now, one point of concern for me is once again, that very powerful signal that I’ve shown you on here.

Bitcoin

Many times, the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference in the opposite direction in which the market’s moving. These indicators are starting to roll a little bit here. That’s a concern, but our MACD is saying, we’re still looking good on the upside but I think a corrective move is likely, but again, there’s a lot of players that have not been able to get in on this long Bitcoin and they’re waiting for an opportunity to get in there. So for now we do have a strong verified resistance here, but a lot of people will call this a double top, a triple top, what have you. I’m very seldomly in that camp of double tops, triple tops. To me, that’s somebody that’s gently knocking on the door who is about getting ready to kick the door down. That’s the way I would currently look at this.

So we’ll see how we make out next week. But if that neural index turns red and the medium-term crossing the long-term predicted difference starts to turn down, that is a warning sign to take profit and wait for your next opportunity to get long. That area in my respectful opinion only will be 51465 or if we click on our VantagePoint software, you can see how the market is hugging this predicted moving in average every single day. This is a fantastic way to use the VantagePoint software for daily entry points and the reason it’s very, very good to use it this way in this particular situation, is that not exactly the best place for a buy and hold here. It’s a good place to go in, make your money, come back out, go back in wash, rinse, and repeat here guys.

That’s the name of the game.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, as we move into our, some of our main Forex pairs, once again, the Euro on a corrective phase which we discussed in last week’s weekly outlook, we can see the exact same signal here that is formed, that has told us that we do not want to continue to sell down here because of this VantagePoint indicator then, and it was dead on the money yet again with absolutely zero lag. That’s what we’re looking for. Zero lag. And then in a warning sign that whether you are a Euro bull or Euro bear, there’s something on there for all of us here. I personally am a Euro bear given the current environment and it’s high correlation to gold. So when I look at this, I’m saying, okay, well, in order for me, once again, to buy the Euro, I must at the very minimum clear this VantagePoint level at 1.2014. If we can’t clear that and close above it for at least one or two days, and I do have a two day rule with some of these predicted moving averages.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

I like to confirm that it’s not just a head fake where they’re trying to get us to go long on this only to pull the rug out from underneath us. That is a very high probability that’s, what’s actually happening. We’ve got the fed coming up, I believe next week. And the fed is going to have to acknowledge that the U.S. economy is improving. That could indirectly point towards rates going higher. That’s a Euro killer guys. So we’ll continue to monitor this, but just remember usually whatever price you see on Monday with this payer and all the other payers for that matter, and the S&P, and oil, and Bitcoin, and gold, it’s often very, it often reverses on Tuesday. So again, be careful of a false break higher on the Euro, only for it to break the other way.

This is where I would look at the again, a reverse check mark on the predicted RSI, failing to show momentum above the 60 level. Most people use the RSI in a conventional overbought, oversold means. That is not the way we want to look at, or that’s not the way I want to look at it. I should say, I’m looking for momentum. If we have momentum in the market, this 60 level will give way and the Euro will break higher, but we’ve got this predicted moving average, blocking that from happening. However, this is, if we’re looking to continue to buy U.S. dollars, then this is a place where we would buy dollars shorting Euro U.S. The other pair we would also use in that scenario is the U.S. Swiss Franc. You can see it’s made very, very strong moves. The dollars made strong moves against the Swiss Franc.

I believe that that will continue and this is a very good buying opportunity down to the T cross long at 91.69. We’ve had a good bull run up here I’d say it’s time for it to cool.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now the Swiss Franc, the Japanese yen and the Euro all have very high correlations to the, to the gold contract. So if gold can’t break out, then these currencies are going to continue to advance. Or the U.S dollar is going to continue to advance, excuse me, against the alfa mentioned currencies, the U.S was Frank or the Swiss Franc, the Euro, the Japanese yen, these are payer payers where we looked to buy dollars. So again, if you click on your FA, you can see that we’ve got a good level of support here using the long-predicted 9266. So we can clearly identify where our support zone is between the 9180 and 9266.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now the British pound again, turning around against the dollar, but getting all tangled up in the previous weeks, verified resistance zone. Again, very powerful tools here. So this is warning that the British pound may not be as strong as what we think it is or what the market thinks it is. So looking at these VantagePoint indicators, our neural index is down. Now, again, we’ve got this T cross long support at 1.3914. We want to continue to monitor this level to see if we can stay above it, using the T cross long and some of the other predicted moving averages as a pivot instead of a crossover point can be highly effective. Because again, this is where I often say, know your levels. If you know your levels, then trading is, trade trading is never easy, but it’s not as hard because it’s not a moving target.

We can see here that we have pushed up above it, but we’re struggling. Now, it is Friday trade but what I would have liked to have seen this week is a close above this particular high at 1.4015 and the sellers were just sitting there on Friday and Thursday for that matter, waiting for it to get up there so they could sell it. So again, keep a very close eye on that 1.3915 level.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now with the dollar-yen, the dollar-yen continues to advance, dollar making significant gains here against the Japanese yen, much like the Swiss Franc. Once again here, our medium-term crossing our long-term predicted difference. It gives a way for just to be some caution is what I would say. Now, this verified high at 109.23, we’re closing up very close to that level on Friday.

So we’re looking for a sustained break of that. Now, if we can get that, then we back our charts out a little bit, and we’re looking for an additional high point here to target. And as you can see there, we’d have to go back quite a ways to see where the dollar was this strong and that would take us back here. Now that would take us back into the June 2020 high. Now, again, if we can push above that, then and only then could we potentially target the March high, that coming in at 111. I believe that this has a good shot of getting up there, particularly if the Fed is even mildly hawkish, if there’s even a little bit of a hint that they could be raising rates, we could see this go considerably higher from here. But again, we’re getting very toppy our main support level coming in at 107.23.

If we click on our F8, this is the level you want to watch to start the week for a potential buy, which is one 108.36. You can see how the market is in constant contact with this blue line and that is the one we want to watch.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, with the Canadian, U.S Canadian pair, had a very good job. It had a decent jobs number. It wasn’t as good as what the market analysts are saying. A lot of the jobs created out of Canada were part-time jobs. They were not full-time jobs. So that’s pushed the pair down based on the unemployment rate falling from I believe, eight or 9.1 to 8.2. That’s a big drop. That’s a good sign for the Canadian dollar, but the Canadian dollar ultimately will follow oil and the equities. Now, we have a major verified support, low that’s coming in at 124.68.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Here’s my advice to start the week. I would expect a push below this level on Monday, but be very cautious of a bear trap down here, guys. There’s just as many negatives about the Canadian economy and the Canadian dollar as there is positives. And I believe there could a bear trap setting up down here so again, this verified support low, be careful of it. We’re oversold absolutely. That doesn’t mean it can’t go lower. Don’t get me wrong. And for right now, the VantagePoint software says we, is stating that we are going lower, but be very, very cautious with this one. If we get a big push down on Monday, I would actually be so bold as to suggest there could be a long trade there. Now with the Aussie and the New Zealand, they have retaken their yearly opening prices. They continue to advance, but again, they’re stalling near the previous verified resistance zone.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The Aussie can still advance if the S&P 500 does, but if it doesn’t, then you’re going to have a problem. My concern, another reverse check mark here failing to hold momentum above the 60 level on the predicted RSI. So again, we want to keep an eye on gold contracts on silver contracts, copper, even with the Aussie, but mainly we want to get above this verified resistance high very, very soon. Okay. And the reason I say that is that the buls will get nervous. If they can’t push through here, then they’re going to get very nervous and they’re going to take profit. As soon as they take profit, it will send this pair lower or in the alternative gold fails, the S&P 500 goes lower, the Aussie doesn’t stand a chance. So to begin the week, you can see very sneaky here. It’s trying to close the week above the T cross long, and it didn’t manage to do that.

That’s a concern. Now, we’re also struggling with the long-predicted here and again, the long-predicted a powerful predicted moving average to tell us where we are, but for now long still carry a slight edge here.

New Zealand versus U.S. Dollar

The same thing would apply to New Zealand here guys. It’s virtually the same trade, but in this case, we could even argue that the New Zealand could be a leading indicator for the low, for the outcome of the Aussie currency. The New Zealand has a, is basically had an epic failure at the VantagePoint T cross long at 7226, and that when we failed to break above it on Thursday, on Friday, it just got pummeled lower.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

So this level to start the week for the Kiwi traders out there, 7222, we need to retake this level immediately. If we do, you guys all have an easy long trade here. Once again, you can even straddle this guy’s. 7222 this is, theirs, it’s not a moving target. It’s sitting there. So if you were to put limit orders at 7235, 7228, something along that line, the second it breaks above here, you can pick up a long trade, but for now, if we’re closing below that T cross long a short is still also very reasonable. So with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of March, the 15th, 2020.

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